BCS spells out candidate odds

Link here.

Nov. 2, 2004 12:00 AM



We've seen all the polls, which seem to change by the hour. We've heard from all the so-called experts. But nobody seems to know who is going to win it all.

Not the college football championship. The presidential election.

We could simplify things and just make our projection based on the Washington Redskins' loss to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. Since 1936, the Redskins' final home game before a presidential election has correctly predicted the outcome, with the incumbent party winning when the Redskins win and the incumbent party losing when the Redskins lose.

But what fun would that be, and how would we fill the rest of this page?

Instead, we decided to rely on the Bowl Championship Series system. After all, if it's good enough to determine a national champion in college football, then it ought to be reliable enough to select the leader of the free world.

George W. Bush or John Kerry?

(Sorry Ralph Nader supporters, but with his name on the ballot in a little more than half the states, we have determined that Nader is not "BCS eligible" and will have to settle for a "lower tier" office, like maybe Maricopa County sheriff.)

OK, so the BCS system combines the results of the Associated Press and USA Today/ESPN polls with rankings produced by six computer programs.

The latest CNN, Gallup and USA Today polls have the presidential race virtually deadlocked.

So it's going to the computers which weigh these factors:


• Strength of schedule

As president, Bush has faced off against the likes of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein, although the Kerry camp will argue that he's losing to bin Laden and that Saddam actually was an unsanctioned opponent.

Anyway, Kerry hasn't taken on any terrorist heavyweights, but as a prosecuting attorney he once oversaw the successful prosecution of somebody named Howie Winter who, according to his campaign literature - Kerry's, not Winter's - was the "No. 2 organized crime figure in New England."

He was convicted of extortion for making businesses install his pinball machines, and also was convicted of fixing horse races.

Hey, you beat No. 2, the computers are going to be impressed.

There is also that wife of Kerry's, Teresa Heinz Kerry, the ketchup lady. She's formidable and scary enough to picture living in a spider hole.

Still, the computer gives a slight edge to Bush.


• Strength of conference

Press conference, that is.

Bush often struggles to find the right word and even when he comes upon it, he has a tendency to butcher the pronunciation - such as when he tries to say nuclear and it comes out "nuke-ler."

Kerry, on the other hand, did have that trial experience and is a much more polished speaker. He loses a bit on style because of that little Herman Munster thing he does, suddenly shuffling his feet real fast during a sentence while wildly swinging his hands.

No matter. Edge to Kerry.


• No edge for running it up

We think this is in keeping with our Electoral College system. In other words, even if Bush wins Dick Cheney's home state of Wyoming by a 70-30 margin, he doesn't get any more electoral votes than if he won 51-49.

It's a toss-up.


• Home vs. away

G-Dub scores a major victory here with Curt Schilling, bloodied star of the Red Sox, hitting the campaign trail for him. Schilling was stumping for Bush in Ohio on the eve of the election.

Being a senator from Massachusetts and a self-described lifelong Red Sox fan, this had to hurt Kerry - although it probably assures him the Yankee vote and a sweep of electoral-rich New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.

Edge to Bush.


• Good old W-L record

For this we turn to presidentelect.org, which has a "computer analysis" of the Electoral College breakdown.

It's the closest thing there is to a BCS system, taking into account factors such as the latest poll data, past election results and state voting tendencies.

In its latest projection, it has Bush with a lock on 33 electoral votes and Kerry with a lock on 15. It has Bush "safe" with another 167 electoral votes and Kerry "safe" on 185.

That leaves 138 more up for grabs, with the computer giving Bush an "edge" on 93 of them and Kerry the "edge" on 45.

Add it all up and, similar to the college football title at the Orange Bowl, it's all coming down to that hanging chad of the contiguous 48 states: Florida.

Which means it will be decided at about the same time as the national championship.